Fooling all the people all the time

The Indian media is going into raptures over the NSG waiver, hailing India’s “major success”. Some are even proclaiming the “End of Nuclear apartheid” thanks to this deal. India will now have 24/7 electricity, it would seem, thanks to Manmohan Singh.

The BJP predictably, is rather angry that too much may have been given away – specifically in the area of weapons testing – to get this waiver.

In reality, however, both parties have got it wrong. This deal is totally, completely irrelevant – both from an energy and military security perspective. It is classic politics -- all froth, no substance.

In terms of energy security, the waiver will do nothing for India. All the waiver does is allows India to enter the “shop of suppliers” (who peddle uranium and nuclear power plants) and do business with them at market rates. The trouble is these toys do not come cheap.

Nuclear power is extremely expensive, even before considering potential environmental costs. Various sources have placed the price of power from a nuclear power plant in India in the region of 12-16 Rs per unit, vis-à-vis Rs 2-8 per unit from the conventional “mix” of plants (hydel, coal, gas, oil, others).

The “waiver” is hence the intellectual equivalent of a Prada store adopting an open door policy. Sure the indigent and daily wage earners can come in, but they’re unlikely to be able to afford anything on sale.

Second, these toys take extremely long to make – upto 10 years from stone laying to commercial power supply. In that time, India’s generation gap is likely to cross 70,000 MW! Montek and Co themselves concede that at most, nuke generation will contribute 10% to this gap closure.

So we will have 7,000 MW of Nuclear power ten years from now. Maharashtra’s power shortage is 6,000 MW. Today. What do we do for the immediate 10 years?

In Indian conditions, Even the 10 year time frame is a myth. It took India 20 years merely to get one Sardar Sarovar done, when its only downside was tribal displacement. Replace “displacement” with “toxic nuclear waste” and pictures of deformed babies. Now imagine the opposition to even one such plant.

All in all then, Manmohan’s great coup – coming on the back of purchased MPs and a forever tarnished Parliament, is likely to yield nothing for the country. We will still remain in the dark.


On the other side, the BJP’s obsession with weapons testing is also tiresome. And irrelevant. Since when has International Law been an impediment to developing your own weapons program?. Such inconveniences have scarcely affected our neighbours – Pakistan and China – from coming together and raising a vibrant (and promiscuous) “Nuclear family” all the while claiming to be chaste. BJP is revealing its own lack of political depth if it it believes they cannot do the same when in power!

In all this, there is something to learn, however, about how to become a superlative politician. In one fell swoop via this deal, Manmohan Singh has re-earned and further burnished his “Reformer” credentials, washing away from the public’s mind all memory of his and his Administration’s grave acts of omission and commission since 2004 (inter alia, multiple constitutional travesties a-la Goa and Bihar, ruinous economic policies resulting in the fiscal deficit growing to pre Narasimha Rao days, blatant communalization of Indian politics with “first claim to resources to muslims” while serially trampling on hindus (“Ram did not exist”), total mishandling of domestic terrorism and reduction of parliament to a horse trading floor).

It is for this alone, that I have to admit to a grudging sense of admiration for both MMS and the Kkkangress.

They’ve proved, that if done right, you can fool all of the people all of the time.

Prime Minister's Independence Day Address -- Part 3

Economic Development [Continued from previous post]

This Government believes that the role of Government in economic activity is not that of a principal industry player or provider, because Government has neither the expertise, nor the capacity to run each and every sector.
Instead, the Government's role in this area should principally be safeguarding the interest of the single largest community -- consumers.

Hence, my Government, over the next 5 years, and in particular, over the next 100 days will begin the process of relinquishing Government control and management of several such companies while establishing strong regulatory mechanisms -- such as self-funded independent regulators.

Depending upon the scale of the Government-owned enterprise in question, small assets (those below 1 billion dollars in value) will be put under public ownership on our capital markets directly.

The divestment of larger companies will be overseen by Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) that will oversee the gradual transfer of management and assets to professional management. Some of these companies include National airlines, state-owned metal and mining companies and entities like the Food Corporation of India.
In line with our overall economic thinking, we believe that while the services of these companies are important (e.g. FCI provides basic rations to our poorest citizens), Government can not and should not be running them as monopolies. Hence, some of these companies, will not be sold en bloc but as de-merged agencies that will have to compete for resources (e.g. such as food vouchers).

Finally, even as the Government reduces its role in running enterprises, some enterprises operate in sectors of vital strategic importance. These include companies in sectors associated with natural resources (water, minerals) and energy (e.g. oil and gas) and with some critical national installations (e.g. Ports).

We believe that like in other sectors, daily management of these companies should not be a concern of the Government, but, given their strategic importance, Government should continue to own them in significant measure.

To ensure strong strategic management of these companies, ownership of these companies will be divested from their parent ministries and transferred to a holding company that is responsible for the management of these entities. We believe this separation of company ownership from the regulating ministry is essential to establish an 'arms length' relationship. This is to ensure that no player gets privileged access, ensuring a level playing field.

These holding companies will be placed under the direct management of Bharat Uday -- a Sovereign Strategic fund that will own these government assets. Bharat Uday will be staffed with the best and brightest Indians who will be tasked with professionalising the management of these companies to ensure that they compete with the best companies in the nation while earning the Government top-quartile returns. Returns from companies owned by Bharat Uday will be utilised to further strategic interests by investing in vital assets worldwide -- such as oil and gas reserves.
To ensure Bharat Uday meets its strategic objectives, it will be accountable directly to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. We believe such a construct will add an altogether new dimension to India's National Interest -- that of Strategic Security earned by Economic power, in addition to military power.


Social Reforms

Finally, my Government will extend its philosophy of establishing clear roles for Government (regulator, provider or financier) to the Social Sector.
We believe that in the Social sector, the role of Government is exclusively as a regulator that establishes a fair and level playing field for all citizens -- irrespective of their differences.
To that end, my Government will focus on reforming or, in some cases, altogether eliminating rules and laws that create distortions, driving wedges between peoples.

It is my belief that initiatives designed to address perceived deficiencies or weaknesses of communities or sectors of society by providing selective benefits against these perceived deficiencies have only succeeded in highlighting these deficiencies, driving a wedge among communities.

For instance, laws such as Article 30 -- expressly discriminate against Hindus by disallowing Hindu organisations from running Schools and Colleges, simply because they are a majority.
This has effectively made Hindus a disadvantaged community, dependent upon Schools operated by other communities for their education. In addition to being discriminatory, such policies artificially reduce the number of schools in our nation.

However, merely removing discrimination is not enough: government must also actively enforce fairness and justice.
Hence, even as social services are given additional freedom, they will now be expected to conform to regulation. Just as our companies must meet norms of probity and accountability, so must our social sector. To that end, a social sector regulator will be established to ensure that all Social organisations -- NGOs, Religious institutions of all denominations and not-for-profit institutions will be required to declare their accounts and activities to the public, in a prescribed format.
This is particularly important, given alarming evidence of the involvement of several NGOs and religious institutions in activities detrimental to India's -- and her citizens' -- welfare and security.

These are our priorities for the next five years: security, education, healthcare, economic development and social sector reform.

In conclusion, India embarks on another illustrious year in her dramatic 6,000 year history. All the Indians I have spoken to in the past few months have been clear that they want this year to be different. A year when we shall promise to our children -- and their children -- an India of unparalleled security, prosperity and opportunity.
Making that difference -- and delivering on that promise -- is a massive challenge. It is now upto us all to deliver.

Jai Hind.

[Concluded]

Prime Minister's Independence Day Address -- Part 2

Education

Reforms in Education constitute the third focus for my Government.

Analysis of Government spending in education reveals a startling fact: expenditure on higher education (medical, technical, engineering and managerial development) is orders of magnitude higher than on primary education.

This is an unsustainable and unacceptable distortion. Insufficient investment in primary education implies that a significant fraction of Indians are not provided the opportunity to earn even a high-school certificate.
Overspending on higher education -- while neglecting primary education -- is perhaps the single-largest mistake we have made in perpetuating discrimination within India.

Insufficient investment in Primary Education (and, I may add, Primary Health) also means non-competitive and anti-merit steps such as quotas and reservations need to be taken to provide symptomatic relief for this underlying flaw.

Finally, international evidence has demonstrated that government subsidisation and control over higher education is largely unnecessary. This is because higher education is usually self funding since degrees typically translate directly into employment opportunities. This has also been proven in India, where private colleges, despite working in a highly restrictive environment, have created tremendous value. They have conferred degrees on lakhs of engineers, doctors and professionals who are now in a position to compete for -- and win -- global opportunities.

Against this background, my Government's Education reform agenda has two simple objectives: universal Primary Education, and a liberalised, competitive higher education sector.

We plan to treble investment in Primary Education -- buttressed by "Education vouchers" similar to healthcare vouchers -- to ensure universal primary education becomes a reality.
Even as investments in Primary Education are increased, the mode of delivery will also be revamped. Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) managed by educational professionals will be formed, under strict performance-payment contracts to ensure that Education is actually being delivered.

In conjunction, the Government will begin the slow divestment of higher educational facilities. Key institutions like the IITs, IIMs, Medical Schools and other higher educational institutes will be transferred to autonomous Trusts, with complete authority -- and responsibility -- for maintaining standards and remaining fiscally viable.
Liberalising the rules to allow private institutions, along with fiscal reforms to facilitate funding of higher education will ensure fee levels remain competitive -- and educational supplies flex to match changes in market demands for talent and skills.

To ensure that quality is maintained in a multi-provider environment, robust regulation is also required. A Primary Education regulator shall be formed to monitor the performance of the SPVs referred to earlier. Existing higher educational regulators (e.g. the UGC) will be vested with higher executive authorities to effectively regulate (as distinct from control) a more diverse higher education provider base.

We believe that, for a nation with a unique dempgraphic like india, a "students' market" that provides skills ased upon job seekers' needs -- rather than an "educators' market" which provides skills based upon suppliers' ability to provide -- is preferred.

Economic Performance
The robust economic growth shown by Indian enterprises since Prime Minister Narasimha Rao initiated liberalisation in 1991 is one of the major success stories of post-independence India.
This growth has weathered several storms -- recessions, boom-bust cycles and global crises. Even as Indian companies have made record profits, acquired global companies and expanded, domestic consumption of virtually all goods (commodities, services, retail) has increased strongly across all sectors -- demonstrating that Indian enterprise is second to none in value creation.

Given this stellar track record in value creation, my government believes that this responsibility should be left to the Indian private sector. The role of the government here should be restricted to regulating the system and preventing distortions.

This will free up government resources and expertise to focus on creating value in areas where the private sector is unable or not suited to value creation -- such as law and order, healthcare and education.

[to be continued]

Prime Minister's Independence Day Address -- an agenda for reform Part 1

PRESS RELEASE
15 August 20xx


In a significant break from tradition, the Prime Minister delivered the Independence day Address to the Nation while standing outside Parliament, in contrast to the usual heavily barricaded Ref Fort ramparts.

Excerpts from his speech:

"My dear countrymen. This day marks the xxth anniversary of India's political independence from over 300 years of Imperial occupation.
Every Independence day is a time for reflection -- of past successes and failures and of future opportunities.
Too many independence days have been spent thinking of the past, and of missed opportunities.
I believe, starting this Independence Day, India and Indians should spend more time thinking about their future.
Keeping that in mind, I spent a significant period of my first 30 days in office meeting over a thousand Indians, from all walks of life, from all parts of India.

Despite their incredible diversity, what struck me was how similar their aspirations for India were: Virtually all aspired to see, in their lifetimes, an India that is safe, powerful, prosperous and dynamic; an India that guarantees the safety and security of all her peoples.

As your Prime Minister, that message is especially pertinent : my people are demanding actions from me and my Government that take concrete steps in setting India in this direction.
And we are required to deliver -- in five years.

On the occasion of this 15th August -- my government's first 15th August -- i will unveil our "first 100 day plan". Reflecting the urgency of expectations, this plan is time-bound -- a response to a clearly articulated expectation of tomorrow's India.

This 100-Day Plan is clearly focused on fundamental reforms and improvements in five core sectors that underlie people's aspirations for a safe, dynamic and wealthy and caring India.
These sectors are: Law and Order (internal and external), Healthcare, Education, Economic performance and Social reforms.

Even as we have focused on these five core sectors, my Cabinet colleagues have debated extensively what the role of Government in each of these areas should be. We believe that in any sector, the Government can play three separate roles: the role of a regulator (that sets and enforces laws), of a provider (an entity that renders a service) or of financer (pays for the service in question, but does not necessarily provide the service itself).

My government has established a clear point of view on the Government's role in each of these sectors.
The objective of the "100 day plan" is to set in motion fundamental reforms in each of these sectors. I shall outline my vision for reform in each of these sectors one by one, beginning with probably the most important: Law and Order.

Law and Order
Ensuring the security of peoples is the first and fundamental role of any Government. Unfortunately, over the past decades, this area has been systematically ignored.
This is an oversight that must be corrected; for, unlike in the other sectors, the role of the Government here is that of regulator financier and provider -- all in one. Failure in this sector is thus entirely ascribable to a Government failure.

Our first priority then in Law and Order will be to raise the funding of elements of our internal and external law and order mechanisms. Resources are needed to raise the service levels of our Courts (that have over 22 million cases pending), our understaffed Police services and our Armed Forces -- to minimise this risk of failure.

In addition to augmenting resources, structural reforms are also necessary to ensure that Lew and Order are always upheld. My government is working to create a reform blueprint to completely insulate Law Enforcement from political influence. This is necessary to ensure that the fundamental right of all citizens to a safe living environment is never held hostage to political and vested interests. It is my belief that with the implementation of these reforms, every perpetrator -- irrespective of class, religion, creed or nationality, will be brought to justice effectively and quickly. A crime punished is ten crimes averted.


Healthcare
Ensuring the mental and physical health of all 1.2 Billion Indians is the bedrock of a strong society.
Healthcare is a top priority for this government since in the next 5 years, this country will have over 300 million children below 15 and over 200 million people over 65 -- both of whom have significant healthcare needs.

The first reform my Government plans to make is to shift the burden of payment for healthcare from the user to the provider.
In our present healthcare system, the government funds hospitals and providers -- irrespective of the quality of care they provide or whether they provide care at all. In this system, citizens end up paying healthcare expenses from their own pockets -- a system that, in nation after nation, has proved to be inequitable and inefficient.
In contrast, the healthcare payment system being devised by my government will provide citizens with cash equivalents that they can redeem in exchange of healthcare services. Hospitals and doctors will be paid on the basis of healthcare cash equivalents they accumulate.
This will significantly increase the efficiency of the system by ensuring that costs are incurred only for services rendered, while also providing users -- especially the poor -- with a real choice in healthcare. A special ring-fenced fund will be established for administering this service to the poor.

The second major reform in health care is around quality management: its important for the Government to ensure that only those health facilities that meet stringent quality, service, hygiene and competence criteria are allowed to operate.
To that end, strong professionally run regulator institutions will be established in the next 5 years to monitor healthcare education, hospitals and patient safety.

[to be continued]

Man for all seasons -- Manmohan Singh (1)

Celebrating the achievements of PM (Dr.) Manmohan Singh

In early 2004, India heaved a collective sigh of relief. The people had spoken, and had shown the communal BJP-led NDA alliance the door.

Gone was the weak kneed Vajpayee (of the infamous Kargil debacle, and the famous Kandhar and bus trip successes), to be replaced by the strong and dynamic Manmohan Singh -- the man who unleashed liberalisation in india in 1991 (no, PV Narasimha Rao had nothing to do with it).

With India back in the hands of a man of integrity, vision and a clear roadmap for development (much like Nehru was), rapid development, elimination of all ills, culminating in superpower status are obvious outcomes. With India on her way to becoming a superpower by ... err sometime in the future (but don't worry, it will all happen very soon), many of her recent achievements have been ignored. This series of small essays is my attempt at filling that void.

Does Manmohan Singh deserve all the credit?

Success, as they say, has many fathers. Failure is an orphan.

So it is with Dr. Singh's successes.

Many have sprung from the woodwork to claim credit for our PM’s success. Some say… “aah it was the communists that forced ... err encouraged... him to do that”, or “Sonia madame must have said so” or “this is the peril of a coalition”.

This is blatantly unfair, for at least two reasons:

First: Manmohan Singh is the Prime Minster of India. This isn’t some badly run business we’re talking about: this is the Government of India, a well run ship with a clear strategy. Further, these are not petty gains but dramatic victories. In a well run organisation, none of these can happen without strong leadership.

Second: It is unfair to blame leaders for failures but look elsewhere to celebrate success. If Bush gets the blame for having trigger happy deputies (e.g. Rumsfeld?), Manmohan Singh must get credit for the achievements of his team.

This set of essays begins with foreign policy, where arguably, the successes have been most spectacular (though his achievements in the field of minority development, educational excellence may be considered equally dramatic).

First fix your neighbours: Successes in Foreign Policy

No single area captures the statesmanship of Our Prime Minister like his achievements in the field of Foreign Affairs. In particular, his handling of Pakistan, the United States of America and of China are worthy of celebration.

Highly successful sale of Indian security interests to Pakistan

Since being appointed PM (he was never elected, but what do people know about leadership?) Dr. Singh has superlatively handled our nasty neighbor, Pakistan. In his own inimitable style he has successfully cowed them into submission with the clever use of Independent India’s oldest weapons – unilateral concessions and kid gloves. The result of this has been spectacular: Pakistan’s largest domestic produce – international terrorism – is now flourishing and is being exported all over the world.

But we are getting ahead of ourselves here. So we will start from the beginning.

As a first gesture, on coming to power, Dr. Singh immediately scuttled POTA (Prevention of Terrorist Activities Act). POTA was a draconian legislation that had allegedly offended the human rights of several terrorists. Some say this was at the behest of the Leftists, Madame Sonia, others; but the rightful credit must go to the man in charge.

Dr. Singh then established a most innovative solution for reducing terror: forming a joint terrorism reduction network with Pakistan. Under this arrangement, India (the 'customer' of terrorism) will share evidence of terror activities with Pakistan (her supplier) . This knowledge sharing mechanisms will allow Pakistan to study evidence from successful and unsuccessful terrorist attacks, enabling key producers like the Pakistan army, the ISI and NGTO's (Non-Government Terrorist Organisations) to get a clear picture of why some attacks worked and others failed.

They will see for example, how foolish terrorists left behind evidence trails that allowed Indian police to trace them back to Pakistan. This information can then be used to refine the next wave of terror attacks, to wipe out innocent Indians more efficiently. This move will dramatically accelerate the development of Pakistan’s terrorism infrastructure; early results have been encouraging (vide infra).

Manmohan has ensured that these efforts for efficiency are not hampered by Indian red tape and bottlenecks that habitually obstruct economic activity. Several jobs are actively being created in India’s burgeoning activist industry to pressurise war-mongers like the Supreme Court, the President and the Police to cease and desist. The masterful clearance of Afzal Guru is iconic of this new thrust for efficiency. So, the more Afzal Gurus Pakistan can produce, the more India will allow them to prosper!

With this masterstroke, painted across a global canvas (India, Havana, elsewhere), Manmohan has bested Chamberlain in negotiating “peace in our lifetimes”, against a remarkably hostile enemy.

Given the time constraints, Dr. Singh had to move quickly, ignoring Parliament in the process. Which is fine: after all, decisive leadership never works on consensus!

See the following references for more details:

“Annual reports” on the robust growth of terrorism:

An encouraging 2004:

http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=32957

A better 2005:

http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=52485

A spectacular 2006:

http://www.expressindia.com/messages.php?newsid=75101

Pakistan can no longer conceal her glee and for the first time admits that this is a key business!

Man of action:

PM ignores prejudiced Police briefings (what do our Cops know? They’re lazy, corrupt and communal)

http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=74764&headline=7/11~Probe:~

Instead of indulging in this nonsense, the Mumbai police should think creatively and establish a joint “crime reduction commission”. Imagine how powerful that would be: the men in khaki and the sundry dons of Mumbai sitting across the table defeating crime! Alas our cops know nothing, and are lazy, corrupt and communal.

Making it happen in Havana: Manmohan’s masterstroke -- declaring Pakistan a victim of terrorism! The Poor things!

http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20060925&fname=parthasarathy&sid=1

http://ia.rediff.com/news/2006/sep/18raman1.htm?q=np&file=.htm

Coming next: Towards a nuclear and bright India

If the masterly handling of Pakistan has demonstrated our Prime Minister’s intellect, the winning of the nuclear deal with America will demonstrate his thirst for success.

I will post this article over the next few days.